Under the continuous promotion of the "double carbon" strategy, the new energy heavy truck market in 2022 will be "booming". The "heat" of the new energy heavy truck market mainly comes from the outstanding contribution of the heavy truck for electricity exchange.

According to the terminal licensing data, 25152 new energy heavy trucks were sold in 2022, up 141% year on year (10448 new energy heavy trucks were sold in 2022). Among them, 12431 heavy trucks were sold in total, an increase of 2.7 times (274%) year on year (3327 in 2021). Its growth rate is far faster than that of new energy heavy trucks, accounting for nearly 50% of the share of new energy heavy trucks, and becoming the backbone of driving the rapid growth of the new energy heavy truck market in 2022!

Industry insiders believe that the electric heavy truck will become the air vent. It is expected that the penetration rate of domestic electric heavy truck will increase to 30% in 2030, and the total sales volume will reach about 440000, of which the electric heavy truck will account for more than 80% of the electric heavy truck.

In 2022, the proportion of electric heavy truck replacement will be close to half

2022 is the landmark year of heavy truck electrification. The technology of pure electric heavy truck and fuel cell heavy truck is gradually mature, and is considered to enter the stage of commercial explosion.

Ouyang Minggao believes that with the overall recovery of the heavy truck market, electric heavy trucks will continue to grow at a high speed in 2023. "I estimate that the increase will reach 100%, that is, 50000 electric heavy trucks may be sold this year."

According to Fangde.com data (excluding exports and chassis), the overall sales volume of domestic new energy commercial vehicle market will be 317000 in 2022, and the penetration rate in the commercial vehicle industry will reach 11.2%. Among them, 264 thousand new energy trucks were sold, up 93.5% year on year.

As the core of the industry, electric heavy truck plays an important role in the overall promotion of commercial vehicle electrification. The terminal sales volume showed that in 2022, the cumulative sales volume of domestic new energy heavy trucks exceeded 25000, up 140% year on year.

It is worth noting that in 2022, the sales of new energy heavy trucks will account for nearly half of the sales.

Ouyang Minggao said that the progress of infrastructure technology is accelerating, including the power exchange technology and overcharging technology. "The economy and business model of power-change heavy trucks have been tested by the market and are enough to compete with fuel heavy trucks. We estimate that the market share of power-change heavy trucks will exceed 50% and reach 70% in the future."

In addition, as the core component of electric vehicles, the energy density of power batteries will increase in 2023, while the price is expected to fall back, which will also be a major benefit for market growth.

Permeability will gradually increase, and the heavy truck will become a tuyere

From the perspective of market share: electric traction vehicles account for 69% in 2022, which is the segment model with the highest share in the electric heavy truck market, but the share decreased by 5.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating that its dominant position in the electric heavy truck market has decreased significantly. Electric dump trucks accounted for 25.8% in 2022, ranking the second, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4 percentage points, which was the largest segment of the vehicle. Electric mixing truck accounted for 5.2% in 2022, ranking the third, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9, which is the second largest segment of the car. The electric load truck is the smallest and almost negligible.

From the perspective of year-on-year growth rate: electric traction vehicles increased by 257.4% year-on-year in 2022, nearly 16.6 percentage points faster than the 274% growth rate of the heavy truck market. In 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of the dump truck for electricity exchange was 361.7%, which was nearly 87.7 percentage points higher than the 274% growth rate of the heavy truck for electricity exchange. The electricity-exchange mixer truck will increase by 383% year-on-year in 2022, leading the market of electricity-exchange heavy trucks.

According to the data of the White Paper, in 2022, the sales volume of heavy trucks for replacing electricity of both Huma Technology and XCMG were more than 2000, and the sales volume of heavy trucks for replacing electricity of SAIC Hongyan and Dongfeng Motor was more than 1000, and the penetration rate of heavy trucks for replacing electricity was increasing rapidly.

"The heavy truck for replacing electricity will become the air vent of the heavy truck and the industry for replacing electricity." Huang Wenchao said that the price difference between oil and electricity and the gradual maturity of technology are the underlying driving force for the growth of the heavy truck market for replacing electricity, while policy promotion, low standardization difficulty and clear business model will become important factors for the rapid popularization of the heavy truck for replacing electricity.

The rate of return can reach 10% - 15%, and the enterprise accelerates its layout

Huang Wenchao said that the return rate of heavy truck power station can reach 10% - 15%, and has attracted the leading power battery enterprises to enter the market. For example, the MTB (modular integrated chassis) technology launched by Ningde Times based on the concept of modular self-combination will effectively improve the standardization and efficiency of heavy truck power station.

It is reported that compared with the traditional battery pack+frame/chassis group mode, Ningde Times MTB technology can increase the volume utilization rate by 40% and reduce the weight by 10%, which can increase the vehicle loading space and improve the loading weight. This technology will take the lead in the power conversion project of the State Power Investment Qiyuanxin Power Heavy Truck.

It is worth mentioning that GCL Energy recently launched the extremely cold power exchange solution to overcome the energy supplement problem of electric heavy trucks in low temperature environment and effectively promote the popularization of electric heavy trucks in extremely cold areas.

Li Yujun, vice president and CTO of GCL Energy Technology, said that the large-scale application of electric heavy trucks is one of the key drivers to promote China's "double carbon" goal in the field of transportation. In low temperature environment, the battery's endurance decreases, and the speed of charging is slow. The breakthrough of power exchange technology in low temperature environment is of great significance to the large-scale promotion of electric vehicles in high and cold regions.

Ouyang Minggao expects that the sales of electric heavy trucks in China will increase by 100% to 50000 in 2023, of which the proportion of electric replacement products is more than 50% and is expected to reach 70%. EVTank predicts that the penetration rate of electric heavy trucks in China will increase to 30% in 2030, and the overall sales volume of electric heavy trucks will reach about 440000, of which electric heavy trucks will account for more than 80% of electric heavy trucks.

In a word, the performance of the heavy truck market in 2022 was eye-catching and became the main driver of the rapid growth of new energy heavy trucks in 2022. It is believed that under the continuous development of the dual-carbon strategy, with the gradual solution of the problems restricting the development of the heavy truck market, the heavy truck industry may usher in greater development opportunities in 2023.