The MPV market seems to have unprecedented vitality, whether it is driven by policy or the demand changes.

Different manufacturers and different models have flocked to the market, from the full expected Senna and Jiahua, to the later Odyssey, Landau Dreamer, Chase MIFA 9, and the newly launched Tencent D9, Krypton 009, and Buick Century. These products have launched an all-around war from independent brands to joint ventures, from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles, bringing unprecedented attention to this once small market.

But please note that the MPV market may be experiencing a false boom.

The tail market is obvious, and the high-end market competition is becoming increasingly fierce

In 2022, the MPV market sold 943000 vehicles in total, down 12.6% year on year. At the end of the year, there was an obvious "tail up" market. Wuling Hongguang continues to take the lead in sales, but its sales growth rate ranks behind Wuling Kaijie and becomes the second largest model in the top 15 MPV sales. In the independent high-end field, Trumpchi M8 "suppress first and then raise" returns to the head. In addition, the B-end products Maple Leaf 80V and Pentium NAT have achieved outstanding results.

In the field of joint venture, Buick GL8 has no suspense to "dominate" the high-end market; Sena followed closely and stood in the top three, further boosting the intensity of high-end MPV market competition. The joint venture "Evergreen Tree" Odyssey and Allison have always occupied the waist of the list and performed steadily.

According to the data released by the passenger transport association meeting a few days ago, in December 2022, the national sales of MPV models reached 100000, up 3.4% year-on-year and 38.3% month-on-month, and the "tail up" market was obvious at the end of the year; In the whole year of 2022, MPV sold 943000 vehicles, down 12.6% year on year.

Specifically, Wuling Hongguang continued to take the lead in sales, becoming the leader in MPV sales in 2022, with a cumulative sales of 161000 vehicles, down 36.2% year on year; Capgemini, the same as Wuling, sold 21000 vehicles in the whole year, down 66.5%, ranking 10th. The year-on-year decline of the two vehicles is higher than the average of the MPV market, and also leads the top 15 MPV sales.

However, Wuling series products have a fast pace of innovation. Except for the cargo model Wuling Hongguang, other passenger MPV models have been continuously updated in recent years. Therefore, the decline gap of Capgemini is to a certain extent filled by the new car Wuling Jiachen, and the price and positioning of the two are overlapped. According to the data, Wuling Jiachen sold 34670 vehicles in 2022, ranking ninth.

The sales volume of popular Lingzhi, which is similar to that of Wuling Hongguang, was 42000 in 2022, down 15.0% year on year, less than that of Wuling Hongguang. It is worth noting that the guiding price range of Fengxing Lingzhi is 59900-99900 yuan, which is significantly higher than Wuling Hongguang's 46000-59900 yuan.

Among the independent medium and high-end brands, Trumpchi M8 and M6 have always been firmly on the list, among which Trumpchi M8 ranks fourth with 65000 vehicles in the year, down only 1.5% year on year, showing a very stable performance. Although the sales volume declined briefly due to capacity problems at the beginning of the year, it is still a "unique" brand among domestic brands, fully reflecting the recognition of consumers for this model. Not long ago, Trumpchi M8 master also successfully passed the MPV truck "front and rear impact" serial collision challenge, simulating the rear-end collision of 8.6-ton heavy truck at 45km/h, the whole vehicle skeleton is relatively intact, the dummy is in good condition, and the injury value is excellent.

False prosperity, real depression

From the perspective of policy orientation, it is undeniable that with the introduction of the "three-child policy", the increase of family travel population is indeed good for medium and large SUV and MPV models.

With regard to the future trend of MPV market, Cui Dongshu, the secretary general of the Passenger Transport Federation, also believed that the three-child policy was a major benefit for the car market and provided structural growth opportunities for China's car market. After all, families with many people need to buy big cars, especially seven-seat cars.

However, the fact is that the MPV market is still weak in recent years.

According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the market share of MPV was 4.0% in 2010 and reached 10% for the first time in 2014. However, since 2017, the market share of MPV has begun to decline, which has been declining for four consecutive years. In 2020, the market share of MPV will be less than 6%.

The MPV market seems to be prosperous and positive, but in fact, it is a drama of continuous failure, which seems familiar.

In 2015, China fully liberalized the two-child policy. At that time, the industry generally believed that the liberalization of the two-child policy would promote the growth of SUV and MPV markets. But in fact, from the perspective of the overall market share, the above market segments as a whole have not experienced significant growth.

Today, with the arrival of several revolutionary MPV products such as the new Buick GL8, Saina and Jiahua, the market activity and attention of the MPV market have been greatly improved compared with previous years. However, except for Wuling Hongguang, Buick GL8 and Saina, many other models are not so popular in sales.

You should know that in the SUV and car market, the monthly sales of more than ten thousand can not even enter the top ten of the sales list, but in the MPV market, as long as the monthly sales of more than ten thousand, there is a great chance to become the top three. This also exposes the important reason why the MPV market has not been able to make a breakthrough for a long time - the lukewarm and tepid of hot models.

At present, the sales volume of domestic MPV's popular products in a single month is only above 10000. In addition to Saina's growing market share, Wuling Hongguang, the first place, and Buick GL8, the second place, both fell to varying degrees.

Toyota Sena, the third in the sales list, is also the only model with year-on-year growth. Saina sold 74000 vehicles in the year, an increase of 7790.2% year on year. At the beginning of its listing, there was a phenomenon that new cars could only be purchased at a higher price, which was regarded as a dark horse in the MPV market.

The head model is not warm, and the waist and tail models continue to decline

On the whole, the popular models of various brands have not achieved satisfactory results. Even Wuling Hongguang, which once dominated the list, is in cold weather. This makes the current MPV market only recover in terms of traffic, not expand in terms of sales, leaving only a false prosperity that will not change in a short time.